Most people are idiots. You can easily prove this because they will agree with the claim in the title. If you try to give them a counterexample — like, you know, the vast majority of smokers not having cancer — they will counter it by "well, it doesn't cause cancer right away". Causality doesn't work like that; it's a "if X, then Y" relationship. Don't use the word if you mean something other than that; say "smoking increases the probability of getting cancer" (yes it does). As an additional counterexample to the claim, here's something most people will dis agree with: passing under a ladder brings bad luck. Mark Twain had a humorous take on this: a character tells another "X passed under a ladder and only six months later he fell and broke his arm" (I'm quoting from memory). That's exactly the same type of "causality" as in the case of smoking: you do X, then long after that bad thing Y happens, and you cl...